A football extravaganza is set to begin in the United States as the Copa America tournament kicks off.
Argentina, the current champions, will initiate proceedings by facing Canada in the opening Group A match, with Lionel Messi once again taking center stage for La Albiceleste.
MESSI
Messi emerged as the joint-top scorer of the 2021 Copa America, netting four goals alongside Colombia’s Luis Díaz. His stellar performance earned him the title of the tournament’s leading assist provider as well. Just 18 months later, Messi guided Argentina to World Cup victory, scoring seven goals during the campaign—second only to Kylian Mbappé’s eight goals in Qatar.
As he takes the field in this year’s Copa America, Messi is on the brink of becoming the tournament’s all-time appearance leader, currently tied with Chilean legend Sergio Livingstone at 34 matches.
With 13 goals in Copa America history, Messi shares the seventh spot on the all-time goalscorers list with fellow Argentine great Gabriel Batistuta. Should he replicate his four-goal haul from the 2021 tournament, Messi would join Norberto Méndez and Zizinho at the top of the historical scoring charts—unless Paolo Guerrero of Peru and/or Eduardo Vargas of Chile score at least four goals each to set a new record.
Since the 2011 Copa America, Messi has taken 102 shots, more than any other player. However, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78%, the second-lowest among players with at least five goals in the competition during that period.
Despite this statistic, Messi’s unparalleled talent and skill are unquestionable.
Entering what is likely his final Copa America tournament, Messi arrives in fine form, having scored 12 goals for Inter Miami in Major League Soccer this season—surpassing his expected goals (xG) of 8.3 and averaging a goal every 86 minutes.
Vinícius Júnior
Vinícius Júnior, fresh off winning the Champions League with Real Madrid and scoring in the final, enters the Copa America as Brazil’s key player. With Neymar sidelined by injury, Vinícius will be tasked with providing both the creative spark and clinical finishing needed to propel Brazil through the tournament.
According to our model, Brazil are second favorites behind Argentina, with a 23% chance of winning.
While Vinícius played as a split-striker for Madrid this season, he is likely to feature on the left wing for Brazil, utilizing his cutting runs to threaten opponents as long as players like Bruno Guimarães and Lucas Paquetá can support him.
In the 2023-24 season, Vinícius scored 24 goals for Real Madrid and made 286 dribble attempts, more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues. He averaged 8.4 take-on attempts per 90 minutes, second only to Jérémy Doku, and completed 3.3 dribbles per 90 minutes.
He has yet to score at the Copa America. It’s worth noting that in 2021, he didn’t start a single game, appearing in only four matches as a substitute.
During that time, he managed just one shot and completed only one of his seven dribble attempts. However, his exceptional form under Ancelotti over the past three years leaves no doubt that he is now Brazil’s key player.
Brazil’s upcoming opponents in Group D are Costa Rica, Paraguay, and an in-form Colombia. While these teams pose challenges, none of their defenses should intimidate Vinícius.
Luis Díaz
Moving on to Luis Díaz, we can’t overlook the joint-leading scorer from the 2021 Copa America.
Luis Díaz had a remarkable tournament three years ago, notably scoring two spectacular goals. One was an overhead kick against Brazil in the group stage, and the other came in the third-place playoff against Peru—a stunning strike from outside the box, where he dribbled past several defenders before smashing the ball into the top-right corner.
His impressive finishing ability at the 2021 Copa America is reflected in his expected goals (xG) of just 1.0. Additionally, Díaz’s expected goals on target (xGOT) figure was 2.2, further underscoring his proficiency in front of goal during that competition.
Díaz, despite taking only 10 shots—18 fewer than Messi—achieved an impressive 40% shot conversion rate at the 2021 Copa America. Only Messi (57) and Neymar (77) attempted more dribbles than Díaz (43) during the tournament, with Messi (34) and Neymar (35) being the only players to complete more dribbles than Díaz’s 26.
While he is now a more familiar figure than three years ago, Díaz remains a formidable opponent when in top form, particularly with James Rodríguez providing creative support.
Darwin Núñez
Completing this list of top Golden Boot contenders is Uruguay’s Darwin Núñez. The Liverpool striker has been a standout performer for his national team under Marcelo Bielsa, often leading their attack despite the presence of Luis Suárez in the squad.
Núñez scored 11 goals in the Premier League during the 2023-24 season for Liverpool but fell short of his expected goals (xG) by 5.4 (16.4 xG).
Despite hitting the woodwork nine times—more than any other player—he struggled with finishing consistency, reflected in his expected goals on target (xGOT) of 15.5. Núñez also missed 14 big chances, second only to Erling Haaland of Manchester City (34).
Darwin Núñez, despite his tendency not to be ultra-clinical (with a 10.2% shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season), is prized for his speed, tenacity, and relentless work ethic, qualities that make him a perfect fit for Marcelo Bielsa’s style of play.
Recently, Núñez showcased his prowess by scoring a hat-trick in Uruguay’s commanding 4-0 victory over Mexico earlier in June. He currently leads the scoring charts in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with five goals to his credit.
Uruguay enters the Copa America in excellent form, with Bielsa known for his attacking philosophy, ensuring plenty of goal-scoring opportunities for Núñez.
They are grouped with hosts USA, Panama, and Bolivia—the tournament’s lowest-ranked team—setting the stage for Núñez to make an immediate impact.
Turning to other contenders for the Golden Boot:
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez had a stellar 2023-24 season with Inter Milan, leading them to the Serie A title while finishing as the league’s top scorer with 24 goals in 33 appearances, surpassing his expected goals (xG) of 17.6. However, he has yet to score for Argentina in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers and faces competition for a starting spot under coach Lionel Scaloni.
Endrick, a young prodigy set to join Real Madrid next season alongside Vinícius, Bellingham, and Mbappé, has already shown promise by scoring three goals in his last three outings for Brazil.
Despite narrowly missing out on becoming the first Seleção player since Neymar in 2021 to score in four consecutive matches, the 17-year-old is viewed as a potential dark horse for the Golden Boot at the Copa America.
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez, Uruguay’s record goal-scorer, arrives at the Copa America in peak form. With 68 goals in 138 appearances for his country and 12 goals for Inter Miami in the current MLS season, Suárez maintains a remarkable scoring rate of one goal every 96 minutes.
His efficiency in front of goal is evident as he holds the fourth-highest shot conversion rate (33.3%) among players who have scored at least five times in MLS in 2024. Uruguay, rated third by the Opta supercomputer, offers Suárez ample opportunities to add to his international goal tally during the tournament.
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic The USA, under the guidance of Gregg Berhalter, struggle with consistency, although they managed a 1-1 draw against Brazil in a recent friendly on 13 June. To mount a serious challenge in the Copa America, the hosts will likely rely heavily on Christian Pulisic.
While primarily known for his creative abilities, the former Chelsea winger demonstrated his goal-scoring prowess by netting 15 times for Milan in the 2023-24 season, marking the most prolific scoring campaign of his career.
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